Development of a Nomogram for Predicting Massive Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children
1Second Department of Infectious Disease, Kunming Children's Hospital, Kunming, Yunnan, People's Republic of China.
Infection and Drug Resistance
|April 5, 2023
Summary
This study developed a nomogram to predict massive necrotizing pneumonia (MNP) in children. The model aids clinicians in early identification of lung necrosis severity.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Pulmonology
- Medical Diagnostics
- Predictive Modeling
Background:
- Necrotizing pneumonia (NP) poses a significant threat to pediatric health.
- Accurate prediction of severe lung necrosis is crucial for timely intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting massive necrotizing pneumonia (MNP) in children.
- To identify key clinical factors associated with MNP development.
Main Methods:
- Utilized LASSO and multivariate logistic regression on data from 282 children with NP.
- Identified predictors including haematogenous spread, WBC, Hb, CRP, LDH, and APTT.
- Constructed and validated a nomogram model using bootstrap resampling and ROC analysis.
Main Results:
- The nomogram demonstrated strong predictive performance with an AUC of 0.889 (training set) and 0.814 (validation set).
- Key predictors identified were haematogenous spread, WBC, Hb, CRP, LDH, and APTT.
- The model showed good calibration and clinical utility.
Conclusions:
- A validated nomogram for predicting MNP in children has been developed.
- This tool can assist clinicians in the early assessment of lung necrosis severity.
- Facilitates prompt and appropriate management strategies for pediatric NP.
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