Toward individual prognosis of IgA nephropathy

The individual prognosis of adult IgA nephropathy patients was studied using the proportional hazards model for the time from biopsy until endstage renal disease. After selection of the most relevant prognostic factors, the 75 patients were stratified with respect to hypertension and its treatment. In these strata, individual prognosis was based on the initial age-adjusted glomerular filtration rate, the initial proteinuria, the presence/absence of gross hematuria, and the presence/absence of microscopic hematuria. Using the scores of a patient on these variables, the probability of surviving any given period of time can be estimated either graphically or by calculation. Prediction is feasible up to about 10 years. Attention has been given to supply all relevant estimates with confidence limits. For each patient the estimated 5-year survival probability as predicted by the model was compared with the actual outcome.