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Uncertain project network analysis with fuzzy-PERT and Interval Type-2 fuzzy activity durations
Juan Carlos Figueroa-García1, Germán Hernández-Pérez2, Jennifer Soraya Ramos-Cuesta1
1Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, Bogotá - Colombia.
Heliyon
|April 10, 2023
Summary
Project network analysis uncertainties are addressed using expert estimates represented as Type-2 fuzzy sets. A fuzzy-PERT set extends classical PERT for ambiguous project activity durations.
Area of Science:
- Project Management
- Operations Research
- Fuzzy Logic
Background:
- Project network analysis faces uncertainties difficult to quantify statistically.
- Expert opinions are crucial for estimating activity durations when data is scarce.
- Disagreements among experts on activity durations can be modeled using fuzzy set theory.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a fuzzy-PERT set for modeling ambiguous project activity durations.
- To present a mathematical formulation for fuzzy project network analysis.
- To provide solution methods for handling expert disagreement in project duration estimation.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing Type-2 fuzzy sets to represent expert estimates of activity durations.
- Developing a fuzzy-PERT set as an extension of the PERT distribution.
- Formulating the fuzzy project network problem mathematically.
- Describing two distinct solution methodologies.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated the application of Interval Type-2 fuzzy numbers and the fuzzy-PERT set.
- Successfully solved two illustrative examples using the proposed fuzzy methods.
- Provided a framework for incorporating expert ambiguity into project duration estimation.
Conclusions:
- The fuzzy-PERT set effectively models expert disagreement in project activity durations.
- The proposed methods offer a robust approach to uncertain project network analysis.
- Expert-driven fuzzy set theory enhances the reliability of project duration estimations.
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