[Life Cycle Prediction Assessment of Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles for 2035]

The development of energy saving and new energy vehicles is an important technology path to reduce carbon emissions for the transportation industry. To quantitatively predict the life cycle carbon emissions of energy saving and new energy vehicles, this study used the life cycle assessment method and selected the fuel economy level, lightweight level, carbon emission factor of electricity structure, and carbon emission factor of hydrogen production as key performance parameters to establish inventories of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), mild hybrid electrical vehicles (MHEV), heavy hybrid electrical vehicles (HEV), battery electrical vehicles (BEV), and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) based on automotive-related policy and technical routes. The sensitivity of carbon emission factors of electricity structure and different hydrogen production methods were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that the current life cycle carbon emissions (CO₂ equivalent) of ICEV, MHEV, HEV, BEV, and FCV were 207.8, 195.2, 149.9, 113.3, and 204.7 g·km^-1, respectively. By 2035, BEV and FCV were predicted to have a significant reduction of 69.1% and 49.3%, respectively, compared with ICEV. The carbon emission factor of electricity structure had the most significant influence on BEV life cycle carbon emissions. In terms of different hydrogen production methods of FCV, hydrogen demand should be mainly supplied by industrial hydrogen by-product purification in the short-term future, whereas hydrogen energy production by water electrolysis and hydrogen production from fossil energy combined with carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology should be used to meet the hydrogen demand of FCV in the long-term future, so as to achieve a significant improvement in the life cycle carbon reduction benefits of FCV.