Pathway and Cost-Benefit Analysis to Achieve China's Zero Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions

Global hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) cumulative emissions will be more than 20 Gt CO₂-equiv during 2020-2060 and have a non-negligible impact on global warming even in full compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA). Fluorochemical manufacturers (including multinationals) in China have accounted for about 70% of global HFC production since 2015, of which about 60% is emitted outside China. This study built an integrated model (i.e., DECAF) to estimate both territorial and exported emissions of China under three scenarios and assess the corresponding climate effects as well as abatement costs. Achieving near-zero territorial emissions by 2060 could avoid 23 ± 4 Gt CO₂-equiv of cumulative territorial emissions (compared to the 2019 Baseline scenario) during 2020-2060 at an average abatement cost of 9 ± 6 USD/t CO₂-equiv. Under the near-zero emission (including territorial and abroad) pathway, radiative forcing from HFCs will peak in 2037 (60 ± 6 mW/m²) with a 33% peak reduction and 8 years in advance compared to the path regulated by the KA, and the radiative forcing by 2060 will be lower than that in 2019. Accelerated phase-out of HFC production in China could provide a possibility for rapid global HFC abatement and achieve greater climate benefits.