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A global transition to flash droughts under climate change
Xing Yuan1,2, Yumiao Wang1,2, Peng Ji1,2
1School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|April 13, 2023
Summary
Flash droughts are rapidly increasing globally due to climate change, challenging current monitoring systems. This trend indicates a shift towards faster-onset extreme weather events, requiring urgent adaptation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Extreme Weather Events
- Drought Studies
Background:
- Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset, pose significant challenges to drought monitoring and forecasting.
- There is ongoing debate regarding whether flash droughts are becoming the new normal, especially with potential increases in slow droughts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the observed trends in drought intensification rates and the transition towards flash droughts globally.
- To identify the climatic drivers behind the observed changes in drought characteristics.
- To project future changes in flash drought prevalence under different emission scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical climate data over the past 64 years for 74% of global regions (IPCC regions).
- Assessment of subseasonal drought intensification rates.
- Attribution analysis linking drought changes to anthropogenic climate change, focusing on evapotranspiration and precipitation anomalies.
Main Results:
- Drought intensification rates have accelerated on subseasonal timescales.
- A significant transition towards more frequent flash droughts has been observed in 74% of global regions over the past 64 years.
- Amplified evapotranspiration and precipitation deficits, driven by anthropogenic climate change, are associated with this transition.
Conclusions:
- Flash droughts are becoming more prevalent globally, indicating a shift in drought dynamics.
- Anthropogenic climate change is a key driver accelerating drought onset and intensification.
- Future projections indicate an expansion of this transition to most land areas, with higher emissions exacerbating the trend, underscoring the need for urgent adaptation measures.
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