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COVID-19 dynamics in an Ohio prison.

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Summary

Incarcerated populations are highly vulnerable to COVID-19. Mathematical models reveal rapid severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread in prisons, highlighting the need for better infection surveillance.

Keywords:
SARS-CoV-2correctional facilitiesmass testingmathematical modelingreproduction number

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Incarcerated individuals represent a vulnerable population for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
  • Understanding respiratory infection transmission in prisons is critical for pandemic preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze SARS-CoV-2 spread within the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections (ODRC) using mathematical and statistical models.
  • To investigate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the Marion Correctional Institution (MCI).

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of publicly available SARS-CoV-2 spread data from ODRC.
  • Application of the dynamical survival analysis (DSA) framework to model transmission.
  • Examination of mass testing results from April 16, 2020, and infection timelines.

Main Results:

  • Extremely rapid and widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection observed in MCI inmates, with 80% infected within 3 weeks.
  • Data consistent with three scenarios: high basic reproduction number (>14) from a single case, a superspreading event with R0 ~3, or earlier undetected circulation.
  • Inability to definitively distinguish between these scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • Prisoners' vulnerability to COVID-19 is confirmed by rapid infection spread.
  • The findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced infection surveillance and reporting systems within correctional facilities.