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Demand-induced regime shift in fishery: A mathematical perspective
Nandadulal Bairagi1, Santanu Bhattacharya1, Biswajit Sarkar2
1Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700032, India.
Mathematical Biosciences
|April 21, 2023
Summary
High fish demand can rapidly trigger fishery regime shifts, leading to ecological and economic instability. This study reveals how demand influences fishery dynamics, potentially causing catastrophic changes and unbounded prices.
Area of Science:
- Fisheries science
- Bioeconomics
- Ecosystem dynamics
Background:
- Fishery regime shifts are typically attributed to overfishing and climate change.
- The impact of market demand on fishery stability remains underexplored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the role of increasing fish demand as a driver of fishery regime shifts.
- To analyze the dynamic behavior of a bioeconomic fishery model under varying demand scenarios.
- To understand how demand influences ecological and economic states within a fishery.
Main Methods:
- Development and analysis of a four-dimensional bioeconomic fishery model.
- Investigation of local and global stabilities of equilibrium points.
- Bifurcation analysis to assess the impact of the demand parameter.
- Application of Pontryagin's maximum principle for optimal revenue analysis.
Main Results:
- Increasing fish demand can accelerate fishery regime shifts, leading to catastrophic changes.
- The demand parameter exhibits dual effects: stabilizing unstable fisheries and potentially causing shifts to non-harvested states.
- High demand can result in unbounded fish prices and destabilize the system.
- Optimal revenue generation strategies were explored under different demand conditions.
Conclusions:
- Market demand is a critical, previously underappreciated factor driving fishery regime shifts.
- Fishery management strategies must consider the complex interplay between demand, ecological dynamics, and economic viability.
- Understanding demand-induced dynamics is crucial for sustainable fishery management and preventing economic collapse.
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