Plastic responses to warmer climates: a semi-natural experiment on lizard populations

Facing warming environments, species can exhibit plastic or microevolutionary changes in their thermal physiology to adapt to novel climates. Here, using semi-natural mesocosms, we experimentally investigated over two successive years whether a 2°C-warmer climate produces selective and inter- and intragenerational plastic changes in the thermal traits (preferred temperature and dorsal coloration) of the lizard Zootoca vivipara. In a warmer climate, the dorsal darkness, dorsal contrast, and preferred temperature of adults plastically decreased and covariances between these traits were disrupted. While selection gradients were overall weak, selection gradients for darkness were slightly different between climates and in the opposite direction to plastic changes. Contrary to adults, male juveniles were darker in warmer climates either through plasticity or selection and this effect was strengthened by intergenerational plasticity when juveniles' mothers also experienced warmer climates. While the plastic changes in adult thermal traits alleviate the immediate overheating costs of warming, its opposite direction to selective gradients and to juveniles' phenotypic responses may slow down evolutionary shifts toward phenotypes that are better adapted to future climates. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering inter- and intragenerational plasticity along with selective processes to better understand adaptation and population dynamics in light of climate change.