Development of a Prognostic Score for Cholangiocarcinoma Patients Using a Combination of Biochemical Parameters

Prognosis of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), especially of intrahepatic CCA (iCCA), is poor primarily due to difficulties in earlier diagnosis. Since the majority of iCCA patients are elders, their prognosis cannot be correctly predicted by pathological features and/or resection status alone. Consideration for comorbidity and/or risks of subclinical diseases at diagnosis is critically necessary for the prediction of prognosis of iCCA patients. This study aimed to develop a simple but reliable scoring system for prognosis of iCCA patients at the time of diagnosis.

Serum samples from 152 iCCA patients were collected, and four commonly used biochemical markers, serum aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, cystatin C and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate were measured. Then, the values of individual patients were scored as 0, 1, and 2 (low, medium, and high) by tertiles or clinically relevant cut-off points and summed to construct a prognostic score with a range between 0 to 8.

Patients with high scores of 2-4 and 5-8 exhibited significantly shorter survival times compared to those with low scores of 0-1 (Chi-square: 15.75, p<0.001). Cox regression analysis suggested that the score could be an independent predictor for the survival of iCCA patients. The odds of advanced tumor stage in high score iCCA patients (2-4 and 5-8) were 12.310 (95%CI=2.241-67.605) and 23.964 (95%CI=3.296-174.216), respectively. This scoring system allowed further stratification of death rates per 100 person-years of iCCA patients.

The ability of such a simple scoring system to discriminate risk might be helpful for iCCA patients to determine therapeutic programs at the time of diagnosis.