A graphical method for forecasting radiation exposure from multi-aged fallout from nuclear weapons

After a nuclear attack it may be necessary for emergency workers, such as firemen, utility workers and medical personnel, to perform urgent tasks in areas highly contaminated by radioactive fallout. To assist the control of radiation exposure of these workers, it will be useful to provide means to forecast radiation exposures both inside and outside the fallout shelter. The method described in this paper is intended for use during the first few days to weeks after the attack, after which time more sophisticated methods may become available. This method requires only a radiation-rate meter, special graph paper, and a timepiece. Communications with Emergency Operating Centers or other sources of information are not necessary. The method permits the determination of the age of fallout and future exposure rates for a location that might be subjected to a number of different fallout clouds, without requiring knowledge of the weapon yields or times of detonation. This method will provide results with less accuracy if different-aged fallout clouds arrive simultaneously. The method is self-correcting so that if the actual decay rate is different than that which is assumed, the forecasted rates will have less error than results obtained by previous methods.