Reducing the carbon emission from agricultural production in China: do land transfer and urbanization matter?

Urbanization and land transfer have triggered a profound reform of the Chinese agricultural sector since reform and opening, leading to a continuous rise in agricultural carbon emissions. However, the impact of urbanization and land transfer on agricultural carbon emissions is not widely understood. Therefore, based on the panel data covering 30 provinces (cities) in China from 2005 to 2019, we adopted a panel autoregressive distributed lag model and a vector autoregressive model to empirically explore the causal relationship between land transfer, urbanization, and agricultural carbon emissions. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Land transfer can significantly reduce carbon emissions from agricultural production in the long run, while urbanization has a positive effect on agricultural carbon emissions. (2) In the short run, land transfer has a significant positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions, and urbanization also has a positive impact on the carbon emissions of agricultural production, but in insignificant ways. (3) There is two-way causality between land transfer and agricultural carbon emission, and between urbanization and land transfer is the same, but urbanization is the one-way Granger cause of agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, some suggestions are provided for low-carbon agriculture development: the government should encourage the transfer of land management rights and guide high-quality resources to gather in green agriculture.