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Modelling the reopen strategy from dynamic zero-COVID in China considering the sequela and reinfection
Sijin Wu1,2, Zhejun Huang1, Susan Grant-Muller2
1Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
Abstract:
Although the dynamic zero-COVID policy has effectively controlled virus spread in China, China has to face challenges in balancing social-economic burdens, vaccine protection, and the management of long COVID symptoms. This study proposed a fine-grained agent-based model to simulate various strategies for transitioning from a dynamic zero-COVID policy with a case study in Shenzhen. The results indicate that a gradual transition, maintaining some restrictions, can mitigate infection outbreaks. However, the severity and duration of epidemics vary based on the strictness of the measures. In contrast, a more direct transition to reopening may lead to rapid herd immunity but necessitate preparedness for potential sequelae and reinfections. Policymakers should assess healthcare capacity for severe cases and potential long-COVID symptoms and determine the most suitable approach tailored to local conditions.
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