Aeolus winds impact on volcanic ash early warning systems for aviation

Area of Science:

• Atmospheric Science
• Remote Sensing
• Aviation Meteorology

Background:

• Volcanic ash poses a significant threat to aviation safety, impacting navigation and engine function.
• Accurate meteorological wind fields are crucial for initializing regional models used in volcanic ash dispersion forecasting.
• Existing forecasting systems rely on the quality of wind data for effective early warning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of Aeolus wind profiling data on regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.
• To evaluate the improvement in volcanic ash dispersion forecasts using Aeolus-assimilated meteorological fields.
• To demonstrate the value of space-based wind measurements for aviation safety during volcanic eruptions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized wind profiling data from the Aeolus satellite mission.
• Assimilated Aeolus data into regional NWP models for volcanic ash dispersion simulations.
• Focused on the case study of Mount Etna's eruption in March 2021.
• Compared simulation results with surface-based aerosol lidar observations.

Main Results:

• Volcanic ash simulations showed significant improvement when using Aeolus-assimilated meteorological fields.
• Wind speed differences reached up to 8 m/s compared to the control run.
• Modeled ash profiles were consistent with observational data only when Aeolus winds were assimilated.

Conclusions:

• Aeolus wind data demonstrably enhances the accuracy of volcanic ash dispersion forecasts.
• Space-based wind profiling missions are essential for improving aviation safety related to volcanic ash.
• Future missions are necessary to further refine early warning systems for volcanic ash events.