Effects of type traits, inbreeding, and production on survival in US Jersey cattle

Greater longevity is associated with lower replacement costs, higher average milk production, and fewer replacement heifers needed. Longevity data are obtained late in life, and for this reason stayability, defined as the probability of survival from birth until a certain age, can be used as an alternative measure. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of different type traits, inbreeding, and production level on the stayability of Jersey cows to various ages, and to assess trends over time. Data consisted of 460,172 to 204,658 stayability records, depending on length of the opportunity period, for survival from birth until 36, 48, 60, 72, or 84 mo of age. Threshold models were used to analyze the stayability traits, including different type traits, inbreeding coefficient, and within-herd production level as explanatory variables. Heritability estimates for stayability traits ranged from 0.05 (36 mo) to 0.22 (84 mo). As expected, the probability of survival decreased as age increased. Highly productive cows were more likely to survive than their poor-producing contemporaries regardless of age and the type trait evaluated. Our data indicate that farmers' selection decisions tend to punish poor production at early ages and reward high production at later stages. Inbreeding negatively affected the probability of survival, especially when inbreeding coefficients exceeded 10%, and this impact was most noticeable at 48 mo of age or later. Some type traits, such as stature and foot angle, had little effect on the probability of survival. Other type traits, such as strength, dairy form, rump width, and rear legs, showed higher probability of survival at intermediate scores, whereas other type traits, such as fore udder attachment, rear udder height, udder depth, and final score, showed higher probability of survival at higher scores. Finally, our results indicate that the probability of survival has decreased in the last decade, probably due to a greater number of heifers available and, therefore, higher culling rates.