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Projecting malaria elimination in Thailand using Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal models
Chawarat Rotejanaprasert1, Saranath Lawpoolsri1, Patiwat Sa-Angchai1
1Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Scientific Reports
|May 13, 2023
Summary
Thailand aims to eliminate malaria by 2024. Spatiotemporal models predict Plasmodium falciparum malaria may be eliminated, but Plasmodium vivax malaria elimination by 2024 is unlikely without new strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
- Public Health
Background:
- Thailand's National Malaria Elimination Strategy targets malaria eradication by 2024.
- Understanding spatiotemporal patterns of malaria is crucial for effective control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply hierarchical spatiotemporal models to analyze malaria incidence in Thailand.
- To predict future malaria cases and assess the feasibility of the 2024 elimination goal.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Thailand malaria surveillance database for retrospective analysis.
- Developed and compared hierarchical spatiotemporal models using Bayesian model selection.
- Projected future malaria cases (2022-2028) using the best-fitted model.
Main Results:
- Models showed differing predictions for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax.
- Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination by 2024 appears feasible.
- Plasmodium vivax malaria elimination by 2024 is unlikely without targeted interventions.
Conclusions:
- Achieving Thailand's 2024 malaria elimination goal requires specific strategies for Plasmodium vivax.
- Innovative approaches are essential to eradicate Plasmodium vivax and declare Thailand malaria-free.
