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A global scale COVID-19 variants time-series analysis across 48 countries
Rachel Yui Ki Chu1, Kam Chiu Szeto2, Irene Oi Ling Wong1
1School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Frontiers in Public Health
|May 14, 2023
Summary
The long-term trend of COVID-19 cases is random globally and stable within countries, indicating the virus is containable, not eradicable. This suggests COVID-19 is transitioning into an endemic state.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Virology
- Econometrics
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic's slowing trend prompts reevaluation of preventive measures' effectiveness.
- Concerns exist regarding the potential transformation of COVID-19 into an endemic disease.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the trend properties of COVID-19 new cases.
- To determine if variants of concern exhibit cointegration, suggesting endemicity.
Main Methods:
- Acquired biweekly COVID-19 case data for 48 countries from GISAID (May 2020-August 2022).
- Analyzed trend components using seasonal decomposition, Breusch-Pagan, Wilcoxon signed rank, and augmented Dickey-Fuller tests.
- Employed vector error correction models to assess variant cointegration and long-term intervariant interactions.
Main Results:
- Global COVID-19 new case trends were found to be heteroscedastic and stationary.
- Indeterministic rate of change in global COVID-19 trends (p=0.052).
- Seasonal cointegration between variants observed in 37 of 48 countries, indicating stable, long-term stochastic interactions.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 new case trends are random globally and stable within most countries.
- The virus is unlikely to be eliminated but remains containable.
- Evidence supports the ongoing transition of COVID-19 from a pandemic to an endemic state.
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