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Future population exposure to heatwaves in 83 global megacities
Yuwei Wang1, Na Zhao2, Chaoyang Wu3
1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|May 14, 2023
Summary
Global warming intensifies heatwaves, increasing risks for urban populations. This study projects future heatwave exposure in 83 megacities, revealing significant inequalities and highlighting vulnerable regions like Southern Asia.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Urban Planning
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- Global warming exacerbates heatwave frequency and intensity, posing significant risks to urban populations.
- Previous studies had limitations in regional scope, temperature metrics, and socioeconomic pathway considerations.
- No prior research comprehensively assessed heatwave exposure in highly populated global megacities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future population exposure to heatwaves in 83 global megacities by 2100.
- To analyze heatwave exposure considering temperature, humidity, and various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
- To identify disparities in heatwave exposure across different megacity income levels and geographical regions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized fine-resolution data for population exposure projection.
- Developed a framework incorporating temperature and humidity for human comfort indices.
- Analyzed projections across multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) up to 2100.
Main Results:
- Heatwave frequency and intensity increase with higher SSPs, with greater rates in Southern Hemisphere megacities.
- Greatest increases in heatwave exposure are projected under SSP3-7.0, particularly in Southern Asian megacities.
- Significant global inequality in heatwave exposure exists, with high-income megacities showing the most unbalanced distribution.
- Low-income megacities face the highest average exposure and increase rates, while population growth is a key driver in high-income cities under SSP1-2.6.
Conclusions:
- Avoiding the SSP3-7.0 scenario and promoting sustainable urban development are crucial.
- Megacities in Southern Asia and low-income megacities require urgent attention for adaptation planning.
- Policymakers and urban planners must prioritize sustainable development to mitigate future heatwave impacts.
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