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Published on: January 29, 2018
'Skeletal Age' for mapping the impact of fracture on mortality
Thach Tran1,2,3, Thao Ho-Le1, Dana Bliuc2,3
1School of Biomedical Engineering, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Background:
Fragility fracture is associated with an increased risk of mortality, but mortality is not part of doctor-patient communication. Here, we introduce a new concept called 'Skeletal Age' as the age of an individual's skeleton resulting from a fragility fracture to convey the combined risk of fracture and fracture-associated mortality for an individual.
Methods:
We used the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register which includes the whole-country data of 1,667,339 adults in Denmark born on or before January 1, 1950, who were followed up to December 31, 2016 for incident low-trauma fracture and mortality. Skeletal age is defined as the sum of chronological age and the number of years of life lost (YLL) associated with a fracture. Cox's proportional hazards model was employed to determine the hazard of mortality associated with a specific fracture for a given risk profile, and the hazard was then transformed into YLL using the Gompertz law of mortality.
Results:
During the median follow-up period of 16 years, there had been 307,870 fractures and 122,744 post-fracture deaths. A fracture was associated with between 1 and 7 years of life lost, with the loss being greater in men than women. Hip fractures incurred the greatest loss of life years. For instance, a 60-year-old individual with a hip fracture is estimated to have a skeletal age of 66 for men and 65 for women. Skeletal Age was estimated for each age and fracture site stratified by gender.
Conclusions:
We propose 'Skeletal Age' as a new metric to assess the impact of a fragility fracture on an individual's life expectancy. This approach will enhance doctor-patient risk communication about the risks associated with osteoporosis.
Funding:
National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia and Amgen Competitive Grant Program 2019.
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