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Rainfall variability patterns in Nigeria during the rainy season
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi1,2, Itohan-Osa Abu3
1Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH, USA. cibebuch@kent.edu.
Scientific Reports
|May 16, 2023
Summary
Rainfall in northern Nigeria is increasing due to global ocean temperature changes and specific climate oscillations. Southeastern Nigeria, however, faces decreasing rainfall linked to warming Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Science
- Nigerian Meteorology
Background:
- Understanding Nigeria's rainfall variability is crucial for agriculture and water resource management.
- Atmospheric circulation patterns significantly influence regional rainfall, but their specific drivers in Nigeria require detailed investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To spatially analyze rainfall patterns and identify atmospheric circulation drivers of wet and dry regimes in Nigeria.
- To examine linear trends in rainfall and associated circulation patterns from 1979-2022.
Main Methods:
- Spatially decomposed rainfall data during the rainy season.
- Analyzed linear trends in rainfall and atmospheric circulation.
- Correlated rainfall anomalies with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) and climate oscillations.
Main Results:
- Northern Nigeria shows coherent rainfall anomalies linked to Sahel rainfall and global SSTa (r=0.55).
- Positive rainfall trends (2-4 mm/year) in northern Nigeria correlate with specific climate oscillation phases and Mediterranean warming.
- Southeastern Nigeria exhibits a negative rainfall trend (approx. 5 mm/year) linked to Gulf of Guinea warming.
Conclusions:
- Circulation patterns and global SSTa are key drivers of rainfall variations and trends across Nigeria.
- Divergent rainfall trends in northern and southeastern Nigeria highlight regional climate change impacts.
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