Pediatric Antiretroviral Therapy Coverage and AIDS Deaths in the "Treat All" Era

In 2015, CD4-based clinical staging criteria for antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation were removed, expanding ART eligibility ("Treat All") for children, who shoulder an outsized burden of HIV-related deaths. To quantify the impact of "Treat All" on pediatric HIV outcomes, we examined shifts in pediatric ART coverage and AIDS mortality before and after "Treat All" implementation.

We abstracted country-level ART coverage (proportion of children <15 years on ART) and AIDS mortality (deaths per 100 000 population) estimates over 11 years. For 91 countries, we also abstracted the year "Treat All" was incorporated into national guidelines. We used multivariable 2-way fixed effects negative binomial regression to estimate changes in pediatric ART coverage and AIDS mortality potentially attributable to "Treat All" expansion, reported as adjusted incidence rate ratios (adj.IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

From 2010 to 2020, pediatric ART coverage tripled (16% to 54%), and AIDS-related deaths were halved (240 000 to 99 000). Compared with the pre-implementation period, observed ART coverage continued increasing after "Treat All" adoption, but this rate of increase declined by 6% (adj.IRR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.98). AIDS mortality continued declining after "Treat All" adoption, but this rate of decline decreased by 8% (adj.IRR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.11) in the post-implementation period.

Although "Treat All" called for increased HIV treatment equity, ART coverage continues lagging in children and comprehensive approaches that address structural issues, including family-based services and intensified case-finding, are needed to close pediatric HIV treatment gaps.