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Impact of Infective Immigrants on COVID-19 Dynamics
Stéphane Yanick Tchoumi1, Herieth Rwezaura2, Mamadou Lamine Diagne3
1Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, ENSAI, University of Ngaoundéré, Ngaoundéré P.O. Box 455, Cameroon.
Mathematical modeling shows that increasing vaccination rates significantly reduces COVID-19 deaths and infections. However, higher immigration rates of infected individuals increase disease spread and mortality, highlighting the need for integrated public health strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic presents a significant global challenge, with mathematical models often overlooking the impact of imported infections.
- Understanding the role of infective immigration is crucial for comprehensive pandemic control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of infective immigrants and vaccination on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, including deaths, cumulative infections, and asymptomatic cases.
- To analyze the influence of varying immigration and vaccination rates, as well as different SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility levels (e.g., Omicron variant).
Main Methods:
- Formulation of a mathematical model incorporating infective immigrants and vaccination.
- Derivation of the basic reproduction number for a model without immigration.
- Numerical simulations using initial conditions representative of the US vaccination program's inception.
Main Results:
- Increasing vaccination rates significantly improves outcomes, reducing deaths, cumulative infections, and asymptomatic cases.
- Higher immigration rates of infected individuals lead to increased deaths, cumulative infections, and asymptomatic cases.
- Vaccine waning rates and natural recovery rates also influence disease dynamics.
Conclusions:
- Vaccination is a critical factor in mitigating the impact of COVID-19.
- Controlling the inflow of infective immigrants is essential for effective public health policy and pandemic prevention.
- Mathematical models should integrate immigration dynamics for more accurate predictions and policy formulation.
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