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Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina
María S López1,2, Andre A Gómez1,2, Gabriela V Müller1,2
1Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Santa Fe, Argentina.
Environmental Health Perspectives
|May 24, 2023
Summary
Rising temperatures linked to climate change are driving increased dengue incidence and outbreaks in South America. This highlights the need for enhanced surveillance of vectors and climate data to predict future epidemics.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Climate change facilitates the spread of dengue from tropical to temperate regions.
- Temperature and precipitation significantly impact dengue vector ecology and disease transmission.
- Recent decades show a rise in dengue epidemics globally.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the role of climate change in escalating dengue incidence at South America's southern transmission limits.
- To analyze the correlation between climate shifts and dengue outbreaks in Argentina.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of climatological, epidemiological, and biological data from 1976-1997 (pre-dengue) and 1998-2020 (dengue presence).
- Inclusion of temperature, precipitation, dengue case counts, incidence rates, and vector optimal temperature ranges.
- Statistical assessment of trends and anomalies in climate and disease variables.
Main Results:
- Dengue presence and outbreaks align with positive temperature trends and anomalies.
- Precipitation trends did not show a clear association with dengue incidence.
- Increased number of days and months with temperatures optimal for dengue vector transmission were observed.
Conclusions:
- Rising temperatures in Argentina over the past two decades correlate with increased dengue virus incidence and geographic expansion.
- Active surveillance of vectors, arboviruses, and meteorological data is crucial for predicting future epidemics.
- Further research into the mechanisms of geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses is recommended.
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