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Trade-off Between Quarantine Length and Compliance to Optimize COVID-19 Control
Kaiyue Zou1, Michael Hayashi2, Sophia Simon3
1From the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Background:
Guidance on COVID-19 quarantine duration is often based on the maximum observed incubation periods assuming perfect compliance. However, the impact of longer quarantines may be subject to diminishing returns; the largest benefits of quarantine occur over the first few days. Additionally, the financial and psychological burdens of quarantine may motivate increases in noncompliance behavior.
Methods:
We use a deterministic transmission model to identify the optimal length of quarantine to minimize transmission. We modeled the relation between noncompliance behavior and disease risk using a time-varying function of leaving quarantine based on studies from the literature.
Results:
The first few days in quarantine were more crucial to control the spread of COVID-19; even when compliance is high, a 10-day quarantine was as effective in lowering transmission as a 14-day quarantine; under certain noncompliance scenarios a 5-day quarantine may become nearly protective as 14-day quarantine.
Conclusion:
Data to characterize compliance dynamics will help select optimal quarantine strategies that balance the trade-offs between social forces governing behavior and transmission dynamics.
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