[Analyses of industrial society from ecology--modeling analyses of industrial ecological system]

A macroscopic industrial ecological model has been developed to investigate the effects of changes in industrial structure on social well-being in general and health in particular. The model is composed of the following sectors: industry and employment, environment and pollution, and population and health care. The model was calibrated using available data of the past 60 years for Japan. The simulation study was conducted with the time span of 1920 to 2000. The results indicated that the gradual shift, in the industrial structure of Japan, would improve the level of living standards resulting in enhanced health service capability and lower death rate although increasing adult disease rates in the aged society. Also the rapid future growths of service industry and information and communication were observed.