Evidence-based target setting informs blue carbon strategies for nationally determined contributions

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Science
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Global climate change necessitates effective implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
• Nature-based solutions offer efficient pathways for climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience.
• Quantifying the multifaceted benefits of nature-based solutions is crucial for selecting effective ecosystem targets within NDCs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate an innovative, evidence-based approach to target setting for NDCs using blue carbon strategies.
• To quantify the multiple benefits of mangrove protection and restoration for carbon sequestration and co-benefits.
• To identify priority locations for blue carbon investments to maximize societal and ecological advantages.

Main Methods:

• Quantification of carbon storage and sequestration potential in mangrove ecosystems.
• Optimization analysis of co-benefits including fisheries, tourism, and coastal risk reduction.
• Spatial prioritization of mangrove protection and restoration areas based on benefit delivery.

Main Results:

• Increased carbon sequestration benefits correlate with expanded mangrove investments.
• Co-benefits for fisheries, tourism, and coastal risk reduction initially increase and then stabilize with investment.
• Identification of key areas for blue carbon strategies that are not currently protected but offer significant co-benefits.

Conclusions:

• Belize's updated NDCs incorporate significant mangrove protection (12,000 ha) and restoration (4,000 ha) by 2030 based on blue carbon benefits.
• Blue carbon strategies provide a scalable model for over 150 countries to enhance NDCs with climate mitigation and adaptation benefits.
• Integrating blue carbon initiatives into NDCs maximizes greenhouse gas sequestration and societal well-being.