Homelessness and predictors of criminal reoffending: A retrospective cohort study

There are not many longitudinal studies examining people experiencing homelessness and interacting with the criminal justice system over time.

To describe the type of criminal offences committed, court outcomes, identify probable predictors of reoffending, and estimate the criminal justice costs in a cohort of homeless hostel clinic attendees.

A retrospective cohort study of 1646 people attending a homeless clinic who had had contact with the criminal justice system (CJS) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using linked clinic, criminal offence, health and mortality data from 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2021. Initial comparisons were made with the 852 clinic attendees without CJS contact in the period. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of recidivism.

There were 16,840 offending episodes, giving an offence rate of 87.8 per 100 person-years (95%CI: 86.5-89.1). The most common index offences were acts intended to cause injury (22%), illicit drug (17%) and theft-related (12%) offences. Most people (83%) were found guilty of the index offence and received a fine (37%) or community-based sentence (29%). Total court finalisation costs were AUD $11.3 million. Three-quarters of those convicted reoffended within 24 months. Offenders were more likely to be younger, have a diagnosis of personality disorder (AOR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.04-1.67), a substance use disorder (AOR: 1.60; 95% CI 1.14-2.23) and/or to have a previous charge dismissed on mental health grounds (AOR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.31-2.46). Within the offending cohort, reoffenders had almost twice the odds of having theft-related offences as their principal index offence (AOR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.29-2.66).

This longitudinal study finding of not only a high rate of criminal justice contact, but also a high rate of recidivism among people who have been homeless, lends support to a need for strategies both to address the root causes of homelessness and to provide a comprehensive systems-based response to reduce recidivism, that includes secure housing as well as mental health and substance use treatment programmes for homeless offenders.