Natural History of Degenerative Spondylolisthesis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

The optimal treatment algorithm for patients with degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis has not been clarified. Part of the reason for this is that the natural history of degenerative spondylolisthesis (DS) has not been sufficiently studied. Comprehension of the natural history is essential for surgical decision making. We aimed to determine 1) the proportion of patients that develop de novo DS during follow-up; and 2) the proportion of patients with progression of preexistent DS by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.

This systematic review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines. Ovid, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched from their inception through April 2022. Demographic values of the study populations, grade of slip, rate of slippage before and after the follow-up period, and percentage of patients with slip in the populations at baseline and after follow-up were the extracted parameters.

Of the 1909 screened records, eventually 10 studies were included. Of these studies, 5 reported the development of de novo DS and 9 reported on the progression of preexistent DS. Proportions of patients developing de novo DS ranged from 12% to 20% over a period ranging from 4 to 25 years. The proportion of patients with progression of DS ranged from 12% to 34% over a period ranging from 4 to 25 years.

Systematic review and metanalysis of DS on the basis of radiologic parameters revealed both an increasing incidence over time and an increasing progression of the slip rate in up to a third of the patients older than 25 years, which is important for counseling patients and surgical decision making. Importantly, two thirds of patients did not experience slip progression.