Policing Pot: State-Level Cannabis Arrests Increase Perceived Risks and Costs but Not Use

Legal sanctions are purported to play a role in cannabis use and related consequences. General models of deterrence suggest that increases in arrests should decrease consumption by heightening perceptions of the negative consequences of use as well as the likelihood and severity of penalties. The present study examined if arrests resulting from cannabis possession relate to cannabis consumption, perceptions of use, and likelihood and severity of related penalties. Combining data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health with the FBI Uniform Crime Report (2002-2013) allowed for the estimation of a series of fixed- effects models that compare rates of arrests and perceived risks of aggregate rates of self-reported use at the state-level over time. Forty-nine states reported data (N = 592 state-years). Cannabis-related arrest rates (ratio of possession arrests for state/state population times 1,000) ranged from 0.04 - 5.63. Increases in cannabis-related arrests were associated with heightened perceptions of risk from use (b = .80 [-.16, 1.8], p < .05); but this association was non-significant in the model omitting states that legalized recreational cannabis in 2012. Arrests related to greater perceptions of the severity of potential penalties, including community service (b = .54 [.24, .85], p < .05), probation (b = .85 [.44, 1.3], p < .001), and prison sentences (b = .25 [.02, .5], p < .05). Arrest rates were not associated with cannabis use (b = -.25 [-.52, .05], p > .05) or the proportion of new initiates (b = -.02 [-.08, .05], p > .05). We conclude that increased arrests are associated with perceptions of negative consequences and penalty but appear unrelated to actual use. This study highlights the need to re-examine the utility of punitive approaches to reduce the public health burden posed by substance use.