Hepatocyte-derived biomarkers predict liver-related events at 2 years in Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis

In patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis, reliable prognostic biomarkers are lacking. Keratin-18 and hepatocyte-derived large extracellular vesicle (lEV) concentrations reflect disease activity, but their ability to predict liver-related events is unknown.

We measured plasma keratin-18 and hepatocyte lEV concentrations in 500 patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis. The ability of these hepatocyte-derived biomarkers, alone or combined with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and FibroTest scores, to predict liver-related events at 2 years was analyzed, taking into account the alcohol consumption at inclusion and during follow-up.

Keratin-18 and hepatocyte lEV concentrations increased with alcohol consumption. In patients without active alcohol consumption at enrollment (n = 419), keratin-18 concentration predicted liver-related events at 2 years, independently of FibroTest and MELD. Patients with both keratin-18 concentrations >285 U/L and FibroTest >0.74 had a 24% cumulative incidence of liver-related events at 2 years, vs. 5% to 14% in other groups of patients. Similar results were obtained when combining keratin-18 concentrations >285 U/L with MELD >10. In patients with active alcohol consumption at enrollment (n = 81), hepatocyte lEVs predicted liver-related events at 2 years, independently of FibroTest and MELD. Patients with both hepatocyte lEV concentrations >50 U/L and FibroTest >0.74 had a 62% cumulative incidence of liver-related events at 2 years, vs. 8% to 13% in other groups of patients. Combining hepatocyte lEV concentrations >50 U/L with MELD >10 had a lower discriminative ability. Similar results were obtained when using decompensation of cirrhosis, defined according to Baveno VII criteria, as an endpoint.

In patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis, combining hepatocyte-derived biomarkers with FibroTest or MELD scores identifies patients at high risk of liver-related events, and could be used for risk stratification and patient selection in clinical trials.

In patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis, reliable predictors of outcome are lacking. In patients with Child-Pugh class A alcohol-related cirrhosis, combining hepatocyte-derived biomarkers (keratin-18 and hepatocyte-large extracellular vesicles) with FibroTest or MELD scores identifies those at high risk of liver-related events at 2 years. The identified patients at high risk of liver-related events are the target-of-choice population for intensive surveillance (e.g., referral to tertiary care centers; intensive control of risk factors) and inclusion in clinical trials.