Estimated Glucose Disposal Rate Predicts Renal Progression in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Insulin resistance is a feature of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), a validated marker for insulin resistance, is associated with complications of diabetes, but few studies have explored the relationship between eGDR and renal outcomes in T2DM.

This study investigated the value of eGDR in predicting renal progression in T2DM.

A total of 956 T2DM patients with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m² and 5 years of follow-up were enrolled. Primary outcomes were rapid eGFR decline, eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m², and composite renal endpoint consisting of 50% eGFR decline, doubling of serum creatinine, or end-stage renal disease. A continuous scale with restricted cubic spline curves and a generalized linear model were applied to evaluate the associations between eGDR and primary outcomes.

Rapid eGFR decline was experienced by 23.95% of patients, 21.97% with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m², and 12.13% with the composite renal endpoint. The eGDR showed a relationship with follow-up eGFR and percentage change in eGFR (P < .001). An eGDR <6.34 mg/kg/min was an independent risk factor for rapid eGFR decline, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m², or the composite renal endpoint(P < .05). Compared with eGDR of 5.65∼6.91 mg/kg/min, eGDR levels >8.33 mg/kg/min decreased the risk of rapid eGFR decline by 75%, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² by 60%, and the composite renal endpoint by 61%. Subgroup analysis was performed by sex, age, and diabetes duration, which showed that eGDR was associated with primary outcomes.

Lower eGDR is a predictive factor for renal deterioration in T2DM patients.