Pediatric unplanned extubation risk score: A predictive model for risk assessment

Unplanned extubation is one of the most common preventable adverse events associated with invasive mechanical ventilation.

This research study aimed to develop a predictive model to identify the risk of unplanned extubation in a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

This single-center, observational study was conducted at the PICU of the Hospital de Clínicas. Patients were included based on the following criteria: aged between 28 days and 14 years, intubated, and using invasive mechanical ventilation.

Over 2 years, 2,153 observations were made using the Pediatric Unplanned Extubation Risk Score predictive model. Unplanned extubation occurred in 73 of 2,153 observations. A total of 286 children participated in the application of the Risk Score. This predictive model was created to categorize the following significant risk factors: 1) inadequate placement and fixation of the endotracheal tube (odds ratio 2.00 [95%CI,1.16-3.36]), 2) Insufficient level of sedation (odds ratio 3.00 [95%CI,1.57-4.37]), 3) age ≤ 12 months (odds ratio 1.27 [95%CI,1.14-1.41]), 4) presence of airway hypersecretion (odds ratio 11.00 [95%CI,2,58-45.26]) inadequate family orientation and/or nurse to patient ratio (odds ratio 5.00 [95%CI,2.64-7.99]), and 6) weaning period from mechanical ventilation (odds ratio 3.00 [95%CI,1.67-4.79]) and 5 risk enhancement factors.

The scoring system demonstrated effective sensitivity for estimating the risk of UE with the observation of six aspects, which overlap as an isolated risk factor or are associated with a risk enhancement factors.