Ecological restoration in the age of apocalypse

Billions of dollars are spent annually on ecological restoration efforts around the world and yet successful attainment of restoration targets still falls short in many regions. Globally, ecosystem restoration is becoming increasingly challenged with changes in climate. Years with extreme climatic events that limit plant establishment, such as severe drought, heatwaves, and floods are projected to increase in frequency. A critical evaluation of current ecological restoration practices and changes to those practices are needed to attain global restoration targets. For plant restoration, many efforts globally focus on planting in a single year following disturbance. The odds of restoration efforts being conducted in a year that is inconducive to plant establishment may be calculated using climatic risk data. We propose a risk-mitigation approach to restoration wherein plantings are conducted across multiple years for projects in a bet-hedging strategy and evaluated through an adaptive management approach.