Lexical phylogenetics of the Tupí-Guaraní family: Language, archaeology, and the problem of chronology

Tupí-Guaraní is one of the largest branches of the Tupían language family, but despite its relevance there is no consensus about its origins in terms of age, homeland, and expansion. Linguistic classifications vary significantly, with archaeological studies suggesting incompatible date ranges while ethnographic literature confirms the close similarities as a result of continuous inter-family contact. To investigate this issue, we use a linguistic database of cognate data, employing Bayesian phylogenetic methods to infer a dated tree and to build a phylogeographic expansion model. Results suggest that the branch originated around 2500 BP in the area of the upper course of the Tapajós-Xingu basins, with a split between Southern and Northern varieties beginning around 1750 BP. We analyse the difficulties in reconciling archaeological and linguistic data for this group, stressing the importance of developing an interdisciplinary unified model that incorporates evidence from both disciplines.