Epidemic control in networks with cliques
L D Valdez1, L Vassallo1, L A Braunstein1,2
1Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata (IFIMAR), Departamento de Física, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata-CONICET, Mar del Plata 7600, Argentina.
Physical Review. E
|June 17, 2023
Summary
Social units like households and schools are key in controlling epidemics. This study models prompt quarantine on social networks, finding it can abruptly suppress outbreaks or show continuous transitions, revealing complex epidemic dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Network Science
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Social units (households, schools) significantly influence epidemic spread.
- Effective control strategies are crucial for mitigating infectious disease outbreaks.
- Understanding epidemic dynamics on complex networks is an active research area.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate an epidemic model incorporating prompt quarantine measures in networks with cliques.
- To analyze the transition points and phase transition properties of epidemic suppression.
- To explore the occurrence of backward bifurcation in epidemic models.
Main Methods:
- Development of an epidemic model on networks with clique structures.
- Implementation of a prompt quarantine strategy based on detection probability (f).
- Utilizing numerical simulations and analytical methods to study epidemic behavior and phase transitions.
Main Results:
- Epidemic outbreaks are abruptly suppressed at a critical quarantine probability (f_c).
- Small outbreaks exhibit characteristics of a second-order phase transition near f_c.
- The model demonstrates both discontinuous and continuous phase transition properties, including backward bifurcation.
Conclusions:
- The prompt quarantine strategy effectively controls epidemics in clustered networks.
- The model accurately captures complex phase transition behaviors in epidemic dynamics.
- Backward bifurcation indicates potential for complex outcomes in epidemic control strategies.
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