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Projecting global oil palm expansion under zero-deforestation commitments: Direct and indirect land use change
Floris Leijten1, Uris Lantz C Baldos2, Justin A Johnson3
1Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Iscience
|June 19, 2023
Summary
Zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs) in the palm oil industry could significantly reduce deforestation. If fully adopted, ZDCs may shrink global oil palm plantations by 40%, saving 96 million hectares of forests.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Global oil palm production has surged in recent decades, often leading to tropical rainforest deforestation.
- Numerous companies in the palm oil sector have adopted zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs) to mitigate environmental impact.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the potential impact of widespread adoption and enforcement of ZDCs on oil palm expansion and deforestation by 2030.
- To quantify the forest area saved under a scenario of full ZDC compliance compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
Main Methods:
- Modeling the global extent of oil palm plantations under two scenarios: full ZDC compliance and BAU.
- Calculating the difference in land conversion for oil palm plantations between the two scenarios.
- Estimating the total forest area saved and the proportion of that saved forest which would have been converted due to oil palm expansion.
Main Results:
- Full adoption and enforcement of ZDCs could result in oil palm plantations being 40% smaller (11 million ha) by 2030 compared to a BAU scenario.
- An estimated 96 million hectares of forests could be saved from conversion.
- Approximately 17% of the saved forests would have been directly or indirectly converted by expanding oil palm plantations under the BAU scenario.
Conclusions:
- Zero-deforestation commitments hold substantial potential for delivering significant environmental benefits, particularly in conserving tropical rainforests.
- The effectiveness of ZDCs is contingent upon their full adoption and rigorous enforcement across all relevant sectors and geographical regions.
- Implementing and enforcing ZDCs can lead to considerable land-sparing effects, mitigating the negative impacts of agricultural expansion on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
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