Social Pressure from a Core Group can Cause Self-Sustained Oscillations in an Epidemic Model

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Populations can be divided into groups with differing health risk behaviors.
• Contagious diseases can spread from high-risk groups to the general population.
• Cure does not confer immunity, necessitating ongoing disease management strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze an epidemiological model for infection propagation.
• To investigate the impact of migration between health-risk groups on disease dynamics.
• To differentiate outcomes based on spontaneous versus socially stimulated migration.

Main Methods:

• A mathematical model using ordinary differential equations to represent population dynamics and disease spread.
• Analytical investigation of model scenarios.
• Numerical simulations to illustrate theoretical findings.

Main Results:

• Spontaneous migration leads to either disease eradication or chronic persistence at a stable level.
• Stimulated migration (social pressure) can result in eradication, chronic persistence, or self-sustained oscillations in infection numbers.
• Migration dynamics significantly influence disease persistence and fluctuation.

Conclusions:

• Migration patterns between behavioral groups are critical factors in disease control.
• Social pressure can introduce complex, oscillating disease dynamics not seen with spontaneous migration.
• Understanding these dynamics is vital for effective public health interventions.