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Spatial Pattern Formation in a Reaction Diffusion Model of Lassa Fever with Adaptive Mobility and Environmental
Olumuyiwa James Peter1,2, Azhar Iqbal Kashif Butt3, Sharifah Sakinah Syed Ahmad4
1Department of Mathematics, Saveetha School of Engineering, SIMATS, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. peterjames4real@gmail.com.
Acta Biotheoretica
|July 30, 2026
Summary
Human mobility adapting to infection risk, alongside environmental spread, shapes zoonotic disease dynamics. Mobility changes can create persistent infection hotspots, highlighting the complex interplay of factors in disease persistence.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Disease Ecology
Background:
- Zoonotic diseases exhibit complex spatiotemporal dynamics influenced by human migration, behavior, and environmental factors.
- Traditional epidemic models often overlook adaptive human mobility and environmental transmission, limiting their predictive power.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a network-based reaction-diffusion model incorporating adaptive human mobility and environmental transmission for zoonotic diseases.
- To analyze how adaptive mobility and environmental factors influence epidemic spread and persistence.
Main Methods:
- A network-based reaction-diffusion model was developed.
- Human mobility was modeled as adaptive to local infection incidence.
- Zoonotic spillover and environmental contamination were included as infection sources.
- Analysis explored various dynamical regimes and quantified long-term outcomes.
Main Results:
- Adaptive mobility leads to diverse epidemic spread patterns, including diffusion, wave propagation, localization, and extinction.
- Intermediate mobility suppression can create persistent infection hotspots.
- Environmental transmission sustains infections where human-to-human transmission is insufficient.
- Model introduces metrics for cumulative burden, environmental exposure, and spatial dominance.
Conclusions:
- Mobility suppression may have limitations in managing zoonotic diseases in endemic areas.
- Environmental transmission is crucial for understanding disease persistence and hotspot generation.
- The model provides insights into spillover dynamics in spatially structured populations.
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