Machine learning to predict poor school performance in paediatric survivors of intensive care: a population-based

Patricia Gilholm1, Kristen Gibbons1, Sarah Brüningk2,3

  • 1Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.

PubMed

Insights

A new machine learning model predicts poor school outcomes for children after intensive care unit (ICU) stays. This tool helps identify children needing extra support for better long-term educational success.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric critical care medicine
  • Machine learning in healthcare
  • Educational outcome prediction

Background:

  • Improved survival rates in pediatric intensive care units (ICUs) highlight the need for tools to predict long-term outcomes.
  • Current methods lack the ability to forecast educational challenges for childhood ICU survivors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting poor school outcomes in children following ICU admission.
  • To identify key factors contributing to educational difficulties in pediatric ICU survivors.

Main Methods:

  • A population-based study analyzed data from children under 16 admitted to ICUs in Queensland, Australia (1997-2019).
  • The primary outcome was failure to meet the National Minimum Standard (NMS) in the National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) tests.
  • Machine learning classifiers were trained and validated using routine ICU data and stratified nested cross-validation.

Main Results:

  • The study included 13,957 ICU survivors with 37,200 NAPLAN tests over a median 6-year follow-up.
  • The model achieved an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.8, predicting NMS failure with 85% sensitivity and 51% specificity.
  • Socio-economic status, illness severity, and neurological, congenital, and genetic disorders were significant predictors.

Conclusions:

  • A machine learning model utilizing data available at ICU discharge can predict educational difficulties in school-aged children.
  • This predictive tool can aid in prioritizing patients for follow-up care and targeted rehabilitation interventions.
  • The model offers a promising approach to support the long-term well-being of pediatric ICU survivors.
Abstract

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