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Consumption and income expectations during Covid-19.
Giovanni Immordino1, Tullio Jappelli1, Tommaso Oliviero1
1Department of Economics and Statistics and CSEF, University of Naples Federico II, Napoli, NA Italy.
Review of Economics of the Household
|June 26, 2023
Summary
Household economic outlooks, not health concerns, shaped Italian consumption expectations for 2022. Expected income and GDP growth significantly influenced spending plans, particularly for wealthier households.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Consumer Behavior Analysis
- Socioeconomic Studies
Background:
- Understanding factors influencing consumer spending is crucial for economic forecasting.
- The COVID-19 pandemic created unprecedented uncertainty impacting household economic expectations.
- Previous research has explored income and health impacts on consumption, but less on their interplay during a health crisis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of microeconomic and macroeconomic expectations on Italian household consumption expectations for 2022.
- To differentiate the effects of expectations regarding income growth and the health crisis on various consumption types (at home, away, online).
- To analyze how income risk perception influences consumption expectations across different wealth levels.
Main Methods:
- Utilized survey data from Italian households collected in November 2021.
- Employed regression analysis to link individual-level income and consumption expectations.
- Distinguished between different categories of consumption (at home, away from home, online, total).
Main Results:
- Expected household income and expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth demonstrated a strong positive association with overall consumption expectations.
- Perceived income risk was positively correlated with expected consumption growth, but this effect was more pronounced among wealthier households.
- Health crisis expectations were found to be insignificant drivers of consumption expectations in the studied period (2022).
Conclusions:
- Economic outlooks, specifically anticipated income and GDP growth, were primary determinants of consumer spending intentions in Italy for 2022.
- Wealthier households' consumption expectations were more sensitive to income risk compared to less affluent households.
- Health concerns played a minimal role in shaping consumption expectations during this period, suggesting economic factors dominated decision-making.
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