Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 13, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy
Elena Carletti1, Tommaso Oliviero2, Marco Pagano3
1Bocconi University, Baffi Carefin Centre, IGIER, and CEPR.
Abstract:
We employ a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms to forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown. A 3-month lockdown generates an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP, and 17% of sample firms, which employ 8.8% of the sample's employees, become financially distressed. Distress is more frequent for small and medium-sized enterprises, for firms with high pre-COVID-19 leverage, and for firms belonging to the Manufacturing and Wholesale Trading sectors. Listed companies are less likely to enter distress, whereas the correlation between distress rates and family firm ownership is unclear.
Related Concept Videos
Bias in Epidemiological Studies
Econometric Views (EViews)
Confounding in Epidemiological Studies
Relative Risk
Causality in Epidemiology
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data

