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Updated: Jul 25, 2025
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Use of an Influenza Antigen Microarray to Measure the Breadth of Serum Antibodies Across Virus Subtypes
Published on: July 26, 2019
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Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871-2016
Fraser Summerfield1, Livio Di Matteo2
1Department of Economics, St Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS B2G 2W5 Canada.
Cliometrica
|June 26, 2023
Summary
Influenza pandemics significantly impacted short-run business cycles through mortality, affecting GDP fluctuations. Even less severe pandemics have notable economic consequences.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Epidemiology
- Economic History
Background:
- Macroeconomic impacts of pandemics are understudied, especially short-run effects.
- Existing literature focuses on long-run growth or specific historical pandemics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To document the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics.
- To analyze the causal relationship between pandemic mortality and business cycle fluctuations.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and Human Mortality Database.
- Employed instrumental variable approach using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality.
- Analyzed data across 16 countries from 1871 to 2016.
Main Results:
- Pandemic-induced mortality significantly contributed to business cycle fluctuations post-1870.
- Identified negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP.
- Demonstrated that less catastrophic pandemics have important economic implications.
Conclusions:
- Pandemics are a meaningful driver of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations.
- The economic consequences of pandemics extend beyond severe historical events.
- Further research into short-run pandemic economics is warranted.
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