Expanding global vaccine manufacturing capacity: Strategic prioritization in small countries

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted significant gaps in equitable access to essential medical countermeasures such as vaccines. Manufacturing capacity for pandemic vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics is concentrated in too few countries. One of the major hurdles to equitable vaccine distribution was "vaccine nationalism", countries hoarded vaccines to vaccinate their own populations first which significantly reduced global vaccine supply, leaving significant parts of the world vulnerable to the virus. As part of equitably building global capacity, one proposal to potentially counter vaccine nationalism is to identify small population countries with vaccine manufacturing capacity, as these countries could fulfill their domestic obligations quickly, and then contribute to global vaccine supplies. This cross-sectional study is the first to assesses global vaccine manufacturing capacity and identifies countries with small populations, in each WHO region, with the capacity and capability to manufacture vaccines using various manufacturing platforms. Twelve countries were identified to have both small populations and vaccine manufacturing capacity. 75% of these countries were in the European region; none were identified in the African Region and South-East Asia Region. Six countries have facilities producing subunit vaccines, a platform where existing facilities can be repurposed for COVID-19 vaccine production, while three countries have facilities to produce COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Although this study identified candidate countries to serve as key vaccine manufacturing hubs for future health emergencies, regional representation is severely limited. Current negotiations to draft a Pandemic Treaty present a unique opportunity to address vaccine nationalism by building regional capacities in small population countries for vaccine research, development, and manufacturing.