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The accurate values of population parameters such as population proportion, population mean, and population standard deviation (or variance) are usually unknown. These are fixed values that can only be estimated from the data collected from the samples. The estimates of each of these parameters are sample proportion, the sample mean, and sample standard deviation (or variance). To obtain the values of these sample statistics, data are required that have particular distribution and central...
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 The probability of a random variable x  is the likelihood of its occurrence. A probability distribution represents the probabilities of a random variable using a formula, graph, or table. There are two types of probability distribution– discrete probability distribution and continuous probability distribution.
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An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 24, 2025

Determining the Likelihood of Variant Pathogenicity Using Amino Acid-level Signal-to-Noise Analysis of Genetic Variation
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The Bayesian Mutation Sampler Explains Distributions of Causal Judgments.

Ivar R Kolvoort1,2, Nina Temme1, Leendert van Maanen3

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Open Mind : Discoveries in Cognitive Science
|July 7, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Keywords:
causal judgmentscausal reasoningconservatismpriorsresponse distributionssampling

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Causal Inference
  • Computational Modeling

Background:

  • Causal judgments exhibit significant variability, deviating from normal distributions and normative responses.
  • Existing models like the Mutation Sampler explain average judgments but not response distributions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an improved model of causal reasoning that accounts for response distributions.
  • To explain phenomena such as response conservatism and central tendencies in causal judgments.

Main Methods:

  • Developed the Bayesian Mutation Sampler (BMS) by extending the Mutation Sampler with generic prior distributions.
  • Fitted the BMS model to experimental data on causal judgments.

Main Results:

  • The BMS model accurately predicts average causal judgments.
  • The BMS explains distributional characteristics, including response conservatism, lack of extreme responses, and spikes at 50%.

Conclusions:

  • Incorporating generic prior distributions significantly enhances causal reasoning models.
  • The Bayesian Mutation Sampler provides a more comprehensive account of human causal judgment variability.