Source Contributions to Fine Particulate Matter and Attributable Mortality in India and the Surrounding Region

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure is a leading mortality risk factor in India and the surrounding region of South Asia. This study evaluates the contribution of emission sectors and fuels to PM_2.5 mass for 29 states in India and 6 surrounding countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar) by combining source-specific emission estimates, stretched grid simulations from a chemical transport model, high resolution hybrid PM_2.5, and disease-specific mortality estimates. We find that 1.02 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.78-1.26) million deaths in South Asia attributable to ambient PM_2.5 in 2019 were primarily from three leading sectors: residential combustion (28%), industry (15%), and power generation (12%). Solid biofuel is the leading combustible fuel contributing to the PM_2.5-attributable mortality (31%), followed by coal (17%), and oil and gas (14%). State-level analyses reveal higher residential combustion contributions (35%-39%) in states (Delhi, Uttar-Pradesh, Haryana) with high ambient PM_2.5 (>95 μg/m³). The combined mortality burden associated with residential combustion (ambient) and household air pollution (HAP) in India is 0.72 million (95% CI:0.54-0.89) (68% attributable to HAP, 32% attributable to residential combustion). Our results illustrate the potential to reduce PM_2.5 mass and improve population health by reducing emissions from traditional energy sources across multiple sectors in South Asia.