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Covid-19 Policy Convergence in Response to Knightian Uncertainty
Anthony M Sayers1, Christa Scholtz2, Dave Armstrong3
1Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Political Studies Review
|July 11, 2023
Summary
Early COVID-19 domestic policies showed consistency due to high uncertainty, as political actors sought to avoid electoral punishment. This convergence is expected to diverge as feedback emerges and politicians reassess policy effectiveness.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Public Policy
- Health Policy
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented domestic policy responses globally.
- Early pandemic policy-making was characterized by remarkable consistency across different political actors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explain the observed convergence in domestic policy responses during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- To model the factors influencing political actors' policy choices under conditions of uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Development of a formal theoretical model.
- Analysis of political incentives and electoral considerations.
Main Results:
- The novelty of COVID-19 created maximum policy uncertainty, driving convergence.
- Political actors prioritized minimizing electoral risk through policy conformity.
- Convergence is predicted to erode due to policy feedback, expert/public opinion divergence, and recalculation of policy costs/benefits.
Conclusions:
- Initial policy consistency in response to COVID-19 was a strategic response to uncertainty and electoral pressures.
- Future policy landscapes may see divergence and potentially extreme policy adoption as conditions evolve.
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