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Epidemic propagation risk study with effective fractal dimension
1School of Computer and Communication, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, P.R. China.
Summary
The effective fractal dimension of complex networks impacts epidemic transmission risk. A higher dimension correlates with increased virus spread, as modeled by the SEIR and a new epidemic growth index.
Area of Science:
- Complex network analysis
- Epidemiology
- Network science
Background:
- Epidemic transmission dynamics on complex networks are crucial for public health.
- Understanding network structure, like fractal dimensions, can reveal transmission risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between effective fractal dimension and epidemic transmission risk.
- To develop a novel epidemic growth index incorporating multiple transmission factors.
Main Methods:
- Calculating effective fractal dimension for scale-free and administrative fractal networks.
- Simulating virus propagation using the susceptible exposed infectious removed (SEIR) model.
- Developing and validating a new epidemic growth index (I) using parameter sensitivity and reliability analysis.
Main Results:
- A larger effective fractal dimension () is associated with a higher risk of epidemic transmission.
- The proposed epidemic growth index (I), combining population mobility, geographical distance, GDP, fractal dimension, and population density, effectively assesses transmission risk.
- The SEIR model reliably simulates early COVID-19 trends, and quarantine measures are effective.
Conclusions:
- Effective fractal dimension is a key factor in epidemic transmission risk on complex networks.
- The new epidemic growth index provides a comprehensive tool for risk assessment.
- Timely interventions like quarantine are vital for controlling epidemic spread.
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