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Conservation implications of a mismatch between data availability and demographic impact.

Alex Nicol-Harper1,2, C Patrick Doncaster3, Geoff M Hilton2

  • 1Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre University of Southampton Southampton UK.

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|July 21, 2023
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Summary

Conservation efforts should prioritize data on vital rates with the greatest demographic impact, like breeding propensity in common eiders (Somateria mollissima), not just those with abundant studies.

Keywords:
breeding propensitycommon eidermatrix‐element elasticitymeta‐analysisseaduckvital rate

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Effective conservation requires prioritizing limited resources towards data that best alleviate biodiversity declines.
  • Understanding the demographic impact of different life-cycle transitions is crucial for targeted interventions.
  • Some vital rates are challenging to document, risking decisions without sufficient empirical data on spatiotemporal variation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether the number of studies on a life-stage transition correlates with its demographic impact on population growth rate (λ).
  • To parameterize a matrix population model for the common eider (Somateria mollissima) using meta-analysis of vital rates.
  • To identify potential mismatches between data availability and demographic importance for conservation.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted a meta-analysis of vital rates for the common eider (Somateria mollissima).
  • Developed a matrix population model incorporating a discrete, reversible 'nonbreeder' stage based on intermittent breeding data.
  • Calculated summed matrix-element elasticities to quantify the influence of different life-stage transitions on population growth rate (λ).

Main Results:

  • The transition between breeding and nonbreeding states (breeding propensity) had twice the influence on λ (24% elasticity) compared to fertility (11% elasticity).
  • Fertility was documented in significantly more studies (n=103) than breeding propensity (n=7), a nearly 15-fold difference.
  • A breeding propensity of 0.72 was estimated, with a 0.28 probability of transitioning to a nonbreeding state.

Conclusions:

  • A significant mismatch exists between the demographic importance of life-stage transitions and the number of studies documenting them, using the common eider as a case study.
  • Conservation actions and research investment should be guided by demographic impact rather than data availability alone.
  • The proposed workflow can help align data needs with availability, preventing disconnects that hinder evidence-led conservation and optimize resource allocation.