Empirical validation of the Essen-Möller probability of paternity

The validity of the Essen-Möller formulation probability of paternity is supported by demonstrating its correctness in a model genetic system--the ABO system. An analysis was made of 1,393 paternity cases typed uniformly for HLA-A and -B, ABO, Rh, and MNSs, in which the mother named one man only as the child's father and in which both mother and putative father identified themselves as Caucasian. For purposes of analysis, putative fathers not excluded from paternity by the four systems tested were regarded as actual fathers. The joint distribution of observed triplets of ABO phenotypes is shown to be statistically consistent with expected values, and the fractions of "true" fathers for a given triplet closely approximated the probability of paternity calculated using a realistic prior probability. Recent allegations of fallaciousness of the method by Li and Chakravarty and Aickin are discussed in terms of the results presented.