Reconciling a national methane emission inventory with in-situ measurements

Reconciling top-down and bottom-up country-level greenhouse gas emission estimates remains a key challenge in the MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) paradigm. Here we propose to independently quantify cumulative emissions from a significant number of methane (CH₄) emitters at national level and derive robust constraints for the national inventory. Methane emissions in Cyprus, an insular country, stem primarily from waste and agricultural activities. We performed 24 intensive survey days of mobile measurements of CH₄ from October 2020 to September 2021 at emission 'hotspots' in Cyprus accounting together for about 28 % of national CH₄ emissions. The surveyed areas include a large active landfill (Koshi, 8 % of total emissions), a large closed landfill (Kotsiatis, 18 %), and a concentrated cattle farm area (Aradippou, 2 %). Emission rates for each site were estimated using repeated downwind transects and a Gaussian plume dispersion model. The calculated methane emissions from landfills of Koshi and Kotsiatis (25.9 ± 6.4 Gg yr^-1) and enteric fermentation of cattle (10.4 ± 4.4 Gg yr^-1) were about 129 % and 40 % larger, respectively than the bottom-up sectorial annual estimates used in the national UNFCCC inventory. The parametrization of the Gaussian plume model dominates the uncertainty in our method, with a typical 21 % uncertainty. Seasonal variations have little influence on the results. We show that using an ensemble of in situ measurements targeting representative methane emission hotspots with consistent temporal and spatial coverage can contribute to the monitoring and validation of national bottom-up emission inventories.